Are Manitoba’s Math Results Declining? Insights from a Winnipeg Tutor

Are Manitoba’s provincial math results declining year-after-year?

The short answer is that results dropped after the pandemic hiatus, and broader assessments show a long-running slide. Manitoba suspended Grade 12 provincial tests from early 2020 through 2023, then reinstated them in 2023–24 with tests counting for 20% of the final grade (Manitoba Education). As a result, we do not have continuous “year-after-year” data for 2020–2023. The first full year back (2024) shows a clear decline: the provincial average in Pre-Calculus 40S fell to 62.4% compared with an average of 68.3% in the three years leading up to COVID, while Applied Mathematics dipped and Essential Mathematics ticked up slightly (Winnipeg Free Press).

At the same time, international benchmarking shows the long-term trend. On PISA 2022, Manitoba’s 15-year-olds scored below the Canadian average, and Canadian math performance has trended down from earlier peaks (CMEC highlights PDF). A Winnipeg Free Press analysis notes Manitoba’s math mean fell from 528 (2003) to 470 (2022), even though Manitoba is no longer last among provinces (Winnipeg Free Press).

Bottom line: because provincial exams were paused, we cannot chart a clean “every single year” decline inside Manitoba’s Grade 12 data. We can say the first post-hiatus results are down, and that broader assessments show a multi-year downward trend that predates COVID (Winnipeg Free Press).

What is driving this decline in math results?

The research and local reporting point to a mix of factors.

• Pandemic learning disruption and lost exam experience: The classes who wrote in 2024 had earlier high-school math interrupted and had limited practice with multi-hour summative exams. Teachers in Manitoba identify this as a real headwind (Winnipeg Free Press).

  
  

• Curricular and pedagogy debates: Scholars point to the need for explicit, foundational instruction and regular practice rather than relying on discovery-only approaches. Evidence summarized by Prof. Anna Stokke shows direct instruction outperforms discovery in math and recommends curricula that stress core skills at the right grade levels (C.D. Howe Institute).

  
  

• See also Stokke’s full report for the policy case and references (C.D. Howe Institute).

  
  

• Attendance and engagement pressures: Chronic absenteeism and related barriers to showing up regularly are widely flagged as post-pandemic challenges that correlate with lower achievement. Manitoba coverage has called this a turning point problem for learning (Winnipeg Free Press).

  
  

No single cause explains everything. Together, these forces help explain why the 2024 provincial results are softer and why PISA trends have sagged over time.

How Tutor Advance’s technology-enhanced online sessions fix the root problems

Tutor Advance is built to remove friction, rebuild foundations, and simulate the exact demands students face on real exams. Here is how our tech stack works in practice.

• Live “Math Studio” that students can follow without getting lost: I share a clean, high-contrast canvas and write with a digital pen while the student watches each step appear in real time. Screens are arranged so definitions, example structures, and worked steps stay visible together. This keeps cognitive load low and prevents the “wait, where did that come from?” feeling that derails many learners.

  
  

• Evidence-based instruction that is explicit and structured: Concepts are taught in small, scaffolded moves, then practiced with immediate feedback. Students see model solutions, then try a near-transfer question, then a far-transfer question. The workflow mirrors what researchers recommend for durable skill building.

  
  

• Exam-grade annotation and timing: We rehearse provincial-style questions under gentle time windows so students learn pacing for final exams. We annotate student work in-session, mark where method drift begins, and tag errors by type (concept, procedure, or slip). That builds “test craft,” not just content.

  
  

• Smart tools chosen for clarity, not flash.

  
  

  • Graphing and modeling when useful (Desmos, GeoGebra) so forms and features are visible.

  • Finance or data questions get a quick Excel model so learners see numbers change as inputs change.

  • PDF markup for past papers to show what full-mark solutions look like and how partials are earned.

  • Camera overlays for calculator keystrokes so students can copy the exact sequence without confusion.

    
    

• Accessible design by default: Dyslexia-friendly spacing, color cues that separate “operations vs values,” and clean page layouts are standard. Students with attention or anxiety concerns benefit from the tidy visual stack and predictable lesson rhythm.

  
  

• Receipts after every session: Students leave with a customized file containing detailed notes with definitions, explanations, diagrams, worked solutions to example problems of varying difficulty, along with common points of confusion and the clarification to overcome them. Parents can see progress building week by week.

  
  

A feedback system that does not stop at the 60-minute mark

Most tutoring stops when the clock hits the hour. Tutor Advance is different.

• Rapid-response feedback all week: Students can text or email a problem photo and get a targeted hint, a marked-up line-by-line correction, or a short screen-recorded walkthrough. This closes loops fast and prevents error patterns from setting in.

  
  

• Mini check-ins before quizzes and provincials: We schedule quick touchpoints to tighten methods, run a 10-minute timing drill, or clear one last knotty concept. That way the “cram night” panic becomes a calm, repeatable routine.

  
  

• Care that shows: Our students know we will not leave them hanging. If a step is fuzzy, I send a clarifying note the same day. If motivation dips, I set a small win for tonight and a plan for tomorrow. Families consistently tell me this is the difference maker.

  
  

What this means for your child

• Manitoba’s first post-hiatus provincial math results are softer, and longer-run assessments show a decline that started before COVID (Winnipeg Free Press).

  
  

• The likely causes are known, and they are fixable with consistent attendance, explicit instruction with practice, and real exam rehearsal.

  
  

• Tutor Advance is built for this exact moment: tech that makes every step visible, instruction that builds lasting skill, and feedback that keeps learning moving between sessions.

  
  

If you want your child to be ready for the provincial exam and confident on every assignment, quiz, and test in between, let’s set up a session and map the path from today’s score to the best result possible for your child.

Sources

• Manitoba Education, Manitoba K-12 Education Data Dashboard. (Manitoba Education).

• PISA 2022, Measuring Up: Canadian Results of the OECD PISA 2022 Study. (CMEC highlights PDF).

• Stokke, Anna. 2015. What to Do about Canada’s Declining Math Scores. C.D. Howe Institute, Commentary No. 427. (C.D. Howe Institute).

• Stokke, Anna. 2018. What to Do about Canada’s Declining Math Scores. C.D. Howe Institute, Intelligence Memo. (C.D. Howe Institute).

• Winnipeg Free Press, Grade 12 provincial exam results take beating after pandemic. (Winnipeg Free Press).

• Winnipeg Free Press, Manitoba students’ math scores improve, but still worrying. (Winnipeg Free Press).

• Winnipeg Free Press, Turning point for learning. (Winnipeg Free Press).

  
  

Note on data availability: Manitoba paused provincial exams from 2020 to 2023, so “year-after-year” trend lines within that period do not exist. The first reinstated cohort (2024) provides the new baseline for provincial test comparisons going forward. (Manitoba Education).